A failure a week

First it was Bear stearns, but the US treasury (similar to our Finance ministry) and the Fed (similar to our RBI) engineered a bailout. Bear stearns, an investment bank was bought out by J P morgan, a commerical bank, in March. This bailout was done to calm the markets and reduce systemic risk.

Well, next in line were Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which were nationalized (federal takeover) for the same reason last week. Now this week it is the turn of Lehman brothers which seems to be on the verge or ready to file for bankruptcy protection. Merrill lynch, another Investment bank and brokerage, is in merger talks with Bank of america. After Lehman brothers, Merrill lynch seems to be the weakest firm and so it could come under attack.

More companies at risk
AIG, one of the largest insurers has fallen by 30% and is at risk now. So is washington mutual, another large bank. So we have a situation where the credit crisis (acutally bad investments on part of the banks and institutions) is now engulfing the financial system. Finally the S*** is hitting the fan !

We could very well see a domino effect and the US government may decide not to bail out any more companies. We could be in for some nasty times.

What does it mean for us ?
So how does it effect us ? Well if you are into medium to long term investing, not much. Actually the panic could create opportunities for us in india. I really don’t see Indian companies getting impacted (other than IT or export oriented companies due to a possible recession in the US and other economies). The impact for IT companies in the long run should not be too much. However there could a short term impact in companies with a high percentage of revenue in the BFSI segment.

All this mess, makes you wonder what kind of risk our banks and financial services firms are taking. I am repeatedly reminded of this statement by warren buffett


source: valueinvestorindia