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Wednesday, May 1, 2013

SEBI's new baby - rules for illiquid stocks


I am sure most of you must have heard of SEBI's new rules for trading in what it calls 'illiquid stocks' which came into effect from 8th April 2013. Some of you may not have heard of it because surprisingly, the media has just not highlighted the issue! Perhaps there is not much incentive for the media to get involved here! ;-) These rules hit more than 2100 hundred companies among the listed space, as can be seen in the annexure to this notice. SEBI has not explained exactly why this has been done, but supposedly it has been to control manipulation in smaller companies. In my very humble opinion, the new rules can be best described as insane! (To put it mildly).

Lets see what all this is about..

I think it all started when, in 2010, an academician decided to write a paper on how call auction system can be implemented to solve certain difficulties in the capital market. The paper can be downloaded here. The author is an extremely accomplished academician and a highly educated individual and is a member of SEBI's SMAC from January 2009. Her CV can be viewed here.
Well, it seems like SEBI really liked the paper and decided to take a cue from it and thus were born rules for call auctions in illiquid stocks. In it, firstly, SEBI defines what it means by 'illiquid stocks' by prescribing few quantitative criteria..


Criteria for illiquidity – For the purpose of this circular, a scrip, whether trading 
in normal market or trade for trade settlement, shall be classified as illiquid on 
a stock exchange if all the following conditions are met:
2.2.1. The average daily trading volume of a scrip in a quarter is less than 
10000;
2.2.2. The average daily number of trades is less than 50 in a quarter; 
2.2.3. The scrip is classified as illiquid at all exchanges where it is traded.


All those stocks which come under this will not be traded in the normal fashion. Instead, they will be traded through an auction mechanism which goes like this..


2.6. Number of auction sessions – Periodic call auction sessions of one hour each 
shall be conducted throughout the trading hours with the first session starting 
at 9:30am.
2.7. Session duration - The call auction session duration shall be one hour, of 
which 45 minutes shall be allowed for order entry, order modification and order 
cancellation, 8 minutes shall be for order matching and trade confirmation and 
remaining 7 minutes shall be a buffer period for closing the current session 
and facilitating the transition to next session. The session shall close randomly 
during last one minute of order entry between the 44th & 45th minute. Such 
random closure shall be system driven.
2.8. Un-matched orders- All un-matched orders remaining at the end of a call 
auction session shall be purged.


Fancy!!! But practically speaking, it has merely made investors like me miserable.

1. Investors now have to track and keep a watch on the market (stocks) the whole day. They are being encouraged to always keep tracking the market, which is a big negative as far as long term investing is concerned.
2. Every hour, a fresh order has to be placed. I think my broker would now hate me more than he hates his mother-in-law.
3. Since a lot of market participants are clueless as to what is all this, there has been extremely low participation and volume in the affected stocks. People must surely be feeling 'trapped' in certain stock, since virtually no exit is available.
4. Practically, this whole section of the listed space will now be closed to institutions, since I am sure they will have better things to do!!! Such lower participation does not help proper price discovery.
5. Also, will promoters take advantage of lower liquidity and panic selling to shore up their holding at lower prices?

I suppose that all this was done to curb manipulation. But setting up quantitative criteria for this purpose does not help. Manipulators can just ensure that these criteria are met and their stocks remain out of the net! But in the process, a lot of genuine companies with genuine shareholders will suffer.

I am no-one to preach on this. What is right/what is wrong is immaterial. Laws are laws and rules are rules. So what can be done about it?

1. I am hoping that as time passes, the market participants will get slowly used to the new method and some bit of sense will return to this section of the market. Otherwise, effectively, this section of the market is practically dead. The stocks covered by these rules for illiquid stocks have become more illiquid than they were earlier!!!
2. I tried viewing this as an opportunity. Probably some panic selling due to absence of liquidity may help us get some good stocks at lower prices. Somehow, that just hasnt happened till now. Lets see what the future holds.
3. I feel it is best to try and adapt to the new system, instead of cribbing or complaining about it. Have a good talk with your broker and ensure his cooperation without frustration in this matter. If instructed properly, the broker can handle the order placing and monitoring part, without much botheration to us.

In a nutshell, this is surely a huge negative for people who invest in small, unknown companies with a lot of value. If price discovery is hampered, returns just cannot be earned. I am keeping my fingers crossed and hoping that over a period of time, all the problems associated with this will be ironed out. After all, we must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope!! - Martin Luther King, Jr.

Cheers and happy illiquid investing!!

P.S. One may also like to read about this whole issue in Moneylife.

Monday, January 14, 2013

BEST RESULTS& RETURNS



 Chemfab Alkalis Ltd

http://cmlinks.com/moneypore/profilenew/financial.asp?mainopt=8&cocode=1216 

 ON September 28, 2012 WE RECOMMENDED AT 56.00 RS. CMP 105.00

STOCK ALMOST DOUBLED IN 4 MONTHS BUT STOCK CAN GO TO 125.00RS SHORTLY

 

Gujarat Automotive Gears Ltd

 http://cmlinks.com/moneypore/profilenew/financial.asp?mainopt=8&cocode=211

ON OCTOBER 9THS WE RECOMMENDED    AT 926.50 TODAY IT HAS REACHED 20 % 1224.00 STOCK CAN GO TO 1325.00 SHORTLY  

Monday, January 7, 2013

Atul Ltd (BUY- 415.00)

http://cmlinks.com/moneypore/profilenew/financial.asp?mainopt=8&cocode=43


LAST YEAR EPS 30.00RS FOR FIRST HALF POSTED 30 EPS VS 10EPS EXPECTING 60EPS FOR FULL YEAR . BUY FOR A PRICE TARGET OF 500.00  IN NEXT 2 MONTHS

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Chemfab Alkalis Ltd

LAST TIME WE RECOMMENDED AT 56.00 IT WENT TO 70.00 NOW IT IS 67.00 CAN GO TO 85.00 IN A MONTH TIME WATCH AND BUY ON DECLINE

http://www.chemfabalkalis.com/AUD_Result_September.pdf

Friday, November 23, 2012

Kuantum Papers Ltd (31.00) BUY

Kuantum Papers Ltd    (ABC Paper Limited)

The ABC Paper has in-built capacity of 100 TPD of finished paper. The pulping & finishing section and ancillary facilities (steam, power, bleach and storage) is over 150 TPD equivalent of paper. The pulping section, in addition to facilities for straw and bagasse is equipped with a jute street to handle upto 10% usage in the raw material furnish at 150 TPD paper production levels. The paper making capacity is reckoned on 52 gsm output basis. The first two Paper Machines (PM I & II) have a capacity of 15 TPD each an the third machine (PM III) has a capacity of 70 TPD. 




MCAP OF THE COMPANY 25CR ASSETS AT  275 CR EXPECTING 10CR PROFIT FOR FULL YEAR. BUY FOR LONG TERM . LAST 5YEARS DIV PAID
(  7.00%10.00%10.00%25.00%25.00%)

PRAMOTERS HOLD 70% PUBLIC HOLDS 10% (6.5LAKS) STOCK EASYLY DOUBLES IN A NEXT SIX MONTHS TIME 

CAUTION : LOW LIQUIDITY 


Thursday, November 8, 2012

J B Chemicals & Pharamaceuticals Ltd (BUY AT 77.00)

The latest quarterly results of JB Chemicals indicate progress made by the company in improving the margins as well as in expanding the business:
The company’s net revenue grew by 32% yoyto Rs212 crore adjusting to other operating income in Q2 FY2013;–PBIT came at Rs25.7 crore as compared to Rs.40.7 crore during Q2FY2013. This is very impressive considering that the company registered Other Operating Income (OOI) of Rs.5.12 crore in Q2FY2013 as compared Rs.32.9 crore in Q2FY2012. If we adjust for the variation in OOI, the PBIT has grown by 87% yoy Net profit was Rs.39 crore during Q2FY2013 –quarterly EPS is alone Rs.4.6;

The company has net cash of Rs.469 crore (cash & current investments of Rs.515 crore minus debt of Rs.46 crore), which is 3.1times its Net Enterprise Value of Rs.152 crore (Current market Cap of Rs.621 crore less net cash of Rs.469). Its book value is at Rs.997 crore as of September 2012, which is Rs.117.7 per share or 1.6 times the current market price;

Considering current margin and growth, the company can achieve Rs.10 EPS in FY2013, implying a P/E of 7.3x at current market price. Further, its has cash and equivalents of Rs55 per share which is 76% of current stock price. The stock can easily double in a year’s time. - My target for JB Chemicals is Rs 150 for the long term


SOURCE : DUKE

 STOCK IDEA:        Apollo Pipes Ltd 349.00 AROUND 325 ITS A GOOD BUY FOR LONGTERM   ...