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Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Knowledgeable Buying/Selling ....
The lessons from a low-profile second-generation stockbroker who adds zeros after his clients wealth, not put them through a zero-sum game
I am amazed when people get excited that a big institutional investor is buying some stock in a big way. I have seen it in bond markets too. The dealer will come in and say, Citi is buying, implying that if Citi is a buyer, there has to be something to it. Nobody will say who the seller is. Obviously, you cannot buy unless there is a seller. If stocks are worth buying and everyone thinks so, then why is somebody selling, when all research analysts think that it is good to buy? We always hear one side of the story.
We never get to know the other side at all. Maybe it is the domestic trader who keeps buying and warehousing when the prices are low and, as demand picks up, he dumps it on an institutional buyer who, in turn, will dump it on the retail buyer at some point. And the retail buyer, once having bought, gets stuck. He either becomes a long-term investor or makes a quick exit (profit or loss borne by him). So, stock markets are a zero-sum game. At different points in time, different hands hold the parcel. Change in market prices (which are a function of demand, supply and expectations) increase or decrease the value of holdings. If you are a short-term trader, you actually experience the pain or gain. If you are a long-term investor, you only see changes in your asset value. Of course, you can also get your annual dividends.
I always wonder at human frailty, when it comes to stock markets. There are occasions when everyone agrees that, at some point, the markets are very expensive. How many actually sell? Or how many actually go short on the market at this stage? Surely, no one does this consistently. At some level, you sell your shares. Do you again buy them when the market comes off? I always wonder. No list of names of the worlds rich ever includes any stock-trader. Warren Buffet has probably never sold much and what his fund owns are significant chunks of many companies. Bill Gates owes his wealth to one stockof the company he founded. This leads me to think that stock-traders are not all that productive in what they do. They are part of the make-believe world that the media creates for pulling in an audience. Serious wealth has been perhaps made only by investors who keep hanging on to their shares and not churn them like a mutual fund manager.
In this context, I recall meeting a stockbroker in Mangalore. He is carrying on his fathers business and has a loyal clientele. He would advise people to invest regularly (before systematic investment plan became a buzzword). He would come out with an annual investment list of around 20 large-cap stocks, dividing the money equally. He would not churn the portfolio at all, unless there was a compelling reason to sell any stock. He would do an annual review and, sometimes, he would add one or two stocks. He preferred to stick to established names, with high emphasis on management quality and return on equity. He had kept tabs on what the portfolio did. It generated a compounded annual return of over 30% over 20 years, excluding dividends. His churn was less than 5% of the portfolio, over 20 years! This return was almost twice what the Sensex delivered in the same timeframe.
I quite liked the way he went about his business. Many of his clients were second-generation clients! He never strayed from his approach. He also refused to offer his clients any platform for trading in derivatives. His view was very simple. I am an investment counsellor and not a casino owner. He also eschewed the small-cap and mid-cap stocks. He said that he did not have the resources to do homework on them. He did not want me to identify him, unlike the top brokers who are always seeking to be on television. I dedicate this column to this low-profile gentleman at Mangalore and wish him the very best.
The author can be reached at balakrishnanr@gmail.com
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Hedge Fund Investing
We have massive Ponzi schemes, equally massive losses and outsized systemic risks that are enough to frighten away even the hardiest of investors.
So before you leap, you need to look — carefully and deeply into this industry. When you do, however, you’ll also find that there’s a lot more to hedge funds than has been making it into the evening news …
Hedge funds are an integral part of our financial investment landscape. They often outperform the broad stock market by wide margins. Many are designed to make money in ANY market environment. And they are now more accessible to investors via a fast-growing new vehicle — funds of hedge funds.
This morning, I’ll give you a basic primer on hedge funds to help you decide if these unique investments are possibly right for you. And in the future, I’ll introduce you to specific funds — and strategies they use — for successful global investing.
What Are Hedge Funds?
The first hedge fund came out in 1949 as a strategy to neutralize the effect of overall market movements on a portfolio.
The strategy was simply to buy stocks that were expected to rise and selling short stocks expected to fall. The concept was to add BALANCE — to produce returns that were not market-dependent and tended to hedge a portfolio’s market exposure.
Nowadays, that has changed in a very fundamental way: Besides protecting a portfolio from downside risk, hedge funds often go for maximum return by deploying large amounts of leverage and investing in several asset classes among global markets.
Who Invests in Hedge Funds?
Hedge funds are private partnerships that are open to a limited number of investors, with qualification criteria determined by the SEC. To get into one, you’ll need to prove you have a net worth greater than $1 million and meet a minimum income requirement.
The reason for these stringent requirements is simple: The SEC feels that hedge funds are riskier and less transparent than mutual funds and most other investments.
Beyond high-net-worth individuals, institutional investors are also a dominant force behind the rising popularity of hedge funds. Two such groups are …
#1. Pension Funds
Unfortunately, U.S. corporate and government pension funds rarely have enough money in their kitty to cover all their expected future liabilities to their members. In fact, assuming the most likely future scenario, the expected shortfall is almost $1.5 trillion!
This is a major reason why pension fund managers have reached beyond traditional investment vehicles to seek outsized returns. And many fund managers think hedge funds are the best places to find them.
Estimates vary. But up to 20 percent of European and American pension funds — plus 40 percent of Japanese pensions — are believed to invest in hedge funds.
Two prime examples: As of January 2, 2009, the two largest government pension funds investing in hedge funds were the California Public Employees’ Retirement System with a total market value of $188 billion and the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan with $108 billion in net assets.
#2. Endowments
Endowments include colleges and universities as well as charitable institutions. And in the latest National Association of College and University Business Officers Endowment Study, hedge funds made up 18 percent of college and university portfolios on a dollar-weighted basis. This puts hedge funds second only to stocks (with a 48 percent allocation).
Additionally, the data reveals another not-so-surprising trend: The larger the institution, the higher the percentage of assets invested in hedge funds.
Even assuming no hanky-panky, the risks are clear. But don’t ignore …
Four Key Benefits Of
Investing in Hedge Funds
Benefit #1 — True diversification across multiple asset classes. Hedge funds operate in any and every asset class imaginable, from the traditional equities and bonds to currencies, commodities, real estate, and even fine art.
Benefit #2 —True global diversification. While most of the strategies used by hedge fund managers are concentrated in developed countries, there are funds focused on the emerging markets of Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. I’m also seeing hedge funds foray into frontier markets — extremely underdeveloped markets of Africa and the Middle East.
Benefit #3 — Non-correlation with traditional investments. The instruments used by hedge funds are diverse. Hedge funds can utilize futures, swaps, and options. This allows them to produce returns that vary wildly from those of broad markets and more common investments.
Benefit #4 — The concept of absolute returns. Hedge funds exist to make money in any market environment. They’re not content to help you “lose less money than the averages.” They make their fees only if they give you a positive absolute return. This is a very powerful incentive. It’s backed by years of solid performance. And I think it’s the main reason the hedge fund industry has been attracting capital from all kinds of investors.
The following chart shows the annualized returns from 1997 to 2008 of various hedge fund strategies as compared to the S&P 500 index.
Among six of the most widely used hedge fund strategies, five have greatly outperformed the S&P 500 Index; only one fell short.
Clearly, if you are qualified for a hedge fund — or a fund of hedge funds — and you can gain the knowledge to help you avoid the pitfalls, this is not a track record you can afford to ignore.
Best regards,
Monty
Friday, October 23, 2009
REPORT ON TYRE INDUSTRY
CARE Research expects the tyre industry to grow at 6.81% in FY10 and at a CAGR of 8.21% till FY13
Report on Indian Tyre Industry
CARE Research expects the tyre industry to grow at 6.81% in FY10 and at a CAGR of 8.21% till FY13
Industry was on a smooth ride till FY08. The industry tonnage production registered a 5-year Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.02% between FY03-08. The largest category of Truck & Bus (T&B) tyres recorded a 5-year CAGR of 5.90% while Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV), motorcycle and car tyre categories grew at 13.34%, 12.27% and 13.98%, respectively in this period.
However, as the economy in general; and automobile industry in specific slowed down in FY09, the tyre demand too came under pressure. In the first nine months of FY09, the industry managed a tonnage growth of only 2.19% against a growth of 7.38% in the same period last year. The tyre offtake to the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) declined by 6.17% during this period. The T&B tyre category was the worst affected with the total offtake of these tyres declining by 0.01% in the first nine months. Also in the face of global slowdown and stiff Chinese competition, the export market offtake declined by 9.82% during this period.
On the face of these demand-side pressures, the tyre industry saw production adjustments from all the major players in the last couple of months. The government too tried to provide external stimulus by effecting 6% excise duty cut across industries (the excise duty for tyres was brought down from 14% to 10% w.e.f. December 7, 2008, and then further reduced to 8% w.e.f. February 25, 2009). In all the gloom; one silver lining for the industry has been the easing of the raw material prices from September 2008 onwards. However, the impact of the fall in commodity prices was not visible in the nine months results of the companies, as the companies were laden with high-price inventories. The benefits of the sublime raw material prices will become visible only in the last quarter of FY09 provided; the demand too supports the topline.
The tyre industry faces competition from China in the domestic market. Imports as a percentage of total T&B tyre production stood at 10% in FY08, with more than 90% of these imports coming from China. While the anti-dumping duty is levied on the import of Chinese T&B bias tyres, the industry now wants it to be extended to Chinese T&B radial tyres to alleviate the import threat. In addition, the industry is also keen on customs duty relief on raw materials not produced/manufactured in the country so as to compete with the Chinese tyres.
Radialisation though in its infancy in T&B tyre category; is making inroads. Most manufacturers have capex plans for radial T&B tyres with no new capacity being added for bias tyres. This indicates that the industry foresees radialisation to take further hold in the T&B tyre category. In the passenger car segment, radialisation has reached 97%; up from 95% a year ago. The Industry is also banking on the customised Off The Road (OTR) tyres and adding capacity in this category.
The Indian manufacturers are looking at increasing their global footprints. Apollo is undertaking an expansion plan at its Dunlop plant in South Africa. Similarly, JK Tyres & Industries has acquired a Mexican company Tornel. It has also entered into a manufacturing agreement with Chinese manufacturers to sell JK-branded tyres in the export markets.
CARE Research Growth Estimates
Though in FY09, CARE Research expects the industry to register a tonnage growth of only 4.27%, the growth is expected to be higher in the medium and long run. In FY10, CARE Research expects the industry to post a growth of 6.81% and the industry growth is expected to touch 8.21% on a CAGR basis between FY08-13. The T&B and LCV tyre categories are expected to register a 5-year CAGR of 6.83% and 8.97%, respectively during this period.
The report on ‘Indian Tyre Industry’ is divided into three sections. Section I of the report provides 5-year coverage on the industry from FY03-08, with specific focus on the performance of the industry in FY08 and April-December 2008. In addition, for a new reader, the basics of the industry too have been provided in Section II of the report. Section III of the report gives an analysis of the top five industry players which is followed by extensive data points in the Annexure.
Section I Current Status of the Market
• The category-wise performance of the industry in the domestic and export market in FY08 and first nine months of FY09 have been studied. Growth trends for each of the tyre markets and tyre categories have been tracked for the past five years.
• Category-wise leadership position of the players has been presented.
• Cost Analysis (raw material, power & fuel, employee and selling expense) of the top players with specific focus on raw material costs besides a detailed study of the raw materials used by the industry has also been provided.
• The emerging trends of the industry have been highlighted and a SWOT analysis of the industry is done.
• CARE Research’s long-term (FY08-13) and short-term (FY09 as well as FY10) tonnage offtake projection for T&B, LCV, Cars, Motorcycles and other tyre categories has been provided with detailed explanation of the methodology adopted and its limitations.
Section II Industry Basics
• The evolution of the industry through its different phases in the different market segments has been traced to give a new reader a firm understanding of the industry.
• The characteristics of the industry (raw material intensity, cyclicality, competition, wide distribution network, capital intensity, low bargaining power, branding, technology requirements, margins and duty structure) and its demand drivers (vehicle production & population, regulatory norms, retreading of tyres etc.) have been analysed.
Section III Company Financials
• This section gives the profiles of the top five players, namely, Apollo Tyres Ltd, Ceat Ltd, MRF Ltd, Goodyear India Ltd and JK Tyres & Industries Ltd. The profile includes financials of the company for the last three financial years, product ranges, sales mix, capex plans and global forays. Besides this, the details of corporate actions by other global and local players in India are also provided.
• Category-wise domestic as well as export units sales of the industry as well as of the top five players has been provided for the last five years (FY03-FY08). Though in FY09, CARE Research expects the industry to register a tonnage growth of only 4.27%, the growth is expected to be higher in the medium and long run. In FY10, the industry is expected to post a growth of 6.81% while the industry growth is expected to touch 8.21% on a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) basis between FY08-13. The T&B and LCV tyre categories are expected to register a 5-year CAGR of 6.83% and 8.97%, respectively, during this period.
Monday, October 19, 2009
DIWALI SCRIPS
STOCKS TO WATCH
1. Mindtree Ltd (567.00)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
39.12 | 141.00 | 13.89CONS | 10 | 13.94 |
2. Eicher Motors Ltd (515.80)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | HALFYEAR-E.P.S |
26.68 | 392.00 | 19 | 66 | 12.95CONS |
3. Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd. (188.00)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | HALFYEAR-E.P.S |
79.70 | 242.00 | 62 | 45 | 3.3 |
4. India Motor Parts & Accessories Ltd (375.00)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1 E.P.S |
4.16 | 233.00 | 39.75 | 120 | 11.9 |
5. Techno Electric & Engineering Company Ltd (FV-2) (147.00)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
11.42 | 40 | 11.10 | 50 | 3.89 |
6. Revathi Equipment Ltd (644.50)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
3.07 | 397 | 17.46 | 100 | 9.27 |
7. International Combustion (India) Ltd (261.90)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
2.39 | 227.70 | 40.63 | 50 | 8.91 |
8. Narmada Gelatines Ltd (76.20)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
4.03 | 100.60 | 14.07 | 25 | 5.41 |
|
9. CEAT Ltd (172.80)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
34.24 | 141.00 | LOSS 16CR | NIL | 17.58 |
10 Apcotex Industries Ltd (79.20)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | H.Y-E.P.S |
5.57 | 99.57 | 7.38 | 40 | 6.00 |
STOCKS TO WATCH
1. MphasiS Ltd Ltd (631.00)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | 9MONTHS-E.P.S |
209.30 | 68.00 | 21 | 34 | 35 |
2. Bharti Airtel Ltd (327.20)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | HALFYEAR-E.P.S |
1898 | 145 | 41CONS | 76 | 14CONS |
3. Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd. (188.00)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | HALFYEAR-E.P.S |
79.70 | 242.00 | 62 | 45 | 3.3 |
4. Indag Rubber Ltd (77.20)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | HY E.P.S |
5.25 | 51.30 | 14.17 | 20 | 10.4 |
5. Pennar Industries Ltd. (f.v -5Rs) (24.85)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
11.42 | 40 | 3.1 | 20 | .85 |
6. Revathi Equipment Ltd (644.50)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
3.07 | 397 | 17.46 | 100 | 9.27 |
7. Balkrishna Industries Ltd (413.00)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
19.33 | 242.00 | 35.30 | 60 | 27.00 |
8. Autoline Industries Ltd (118.65)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
12.20 | 100.60 | 4.65 | 10 | 1.2 |
|
9. Tinplate Company of India Ltd (57.20)
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | Q1-E.P.S |
28.92 | 26 | 12 | 12.50 | 7.57 |
10 Sasken Communication Technology Ltd
EQUITY IN CR | BOOKVALUE | LAST EPS | DIV % | H.Y-E.P.S |
27.11 | 155.00 | 9.50 | 40 | 6.24 |
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